The tables assume the dealer already checked for, and did not have, blackjack. There are 16 total tables, for 1 to 8 decks and whether or not the dealer stands or hits on soft 17. For dealer probabilities before the dealer checks for blackjack please see Dealer Odds in Blackjack under European Rules. One Deck — Stand on Soft 17. The remaining 9 out of 13, or 69 percent of the time, the dealer won t have a 10 in the hole. When you make the insurance bet, you are betting that the dealer has a ten in the hole when she shows an Ace. Assume you make a $10 insurance wager. Four times you ll win $20 on the insurance bet (2 to 1 payoff odds) for a total win of $80. The dealer and player each have a 28 percent probability of busting (therefore 28 multiplied by 28) or about 8 percent of the time both hands would bust and the dealer would win. With the use of the right blackjack basic strategy, you will have the opportunity to turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7-8 percent down to just 0. Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds. To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must. Single deck blackjack has the lowest casino edge of 0.16%, which gives the player better odds. Double deck games have a considerably low edge at 0.46%. Most land-based resorts and reputable online casinos use six to eight decks for blackjack.
- Odds Of Dealer Winning Blackjack Odds
- Blackjack Odds Table
- Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hand
- Odds Of Dealer Winning Blackjack Numbers
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Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds
To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.
Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack
In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.
By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.
Probability of Busting on a Hit
Odds Of Dealer Winning Blackjack Odds
It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:
| Hand Value | % Bust If You Hit |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
Two-Card Count Frequencies
This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.
| Two Card Count | % Frequency |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17-20) | 30.0 % |
| Decision Hands (1-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| TOTAL | 100.0% |
Dealer Final Hand Probabilities
This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.
| Dealer Final Hand Value | % | Cumulative % Total |
|---|---|---|
| Natural 21 | 4.82% | 4.83% |
| 21 (3 or More Cards) | 7.36% | 12.19% |
| 20 | 17.58% | 29.77% |
| 19 | 13.48% | 43.25% |
| 18 | 13.81% | 57.06% |
| 17 | 14.58% | 71.64% |
| 16 | 28.36% | 100.00% |
Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card
The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.
| Dealer Up Card | Dealer Bust % | Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck
When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.
Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.
| Card | % Effect of Removal |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| A | -0.59% |
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When you play blackjack, you have some incomplete information to base your playing decisions on. You know the value of your two cards and you know the value of the dealer’s up card. You don’t know what the dealer’s hole card is and you don’t know what the next card out of the shoe will be. However, if you use basic strategy when you play, you can make an accurate decision based on just the information that you do know.
Basic Strategy
Basic blackjack strategy is based on the mathematics of the game. It has been tested and refined through computer simulations. When it is followed correctly, it reduces the house edge to the minimum, which is usually about one-half of a percent. When you use basic strategy, you make your decision to hit, stand, or double down based on your two cards and the dealer's up card. Many players wonder what percentage of time will the dealer bust based on their up card. (Whenever your hand or the dealer’s hand goes over the total of 21, it is called a bust.)
The dealer will bust more often with certain up cards than with others. Take a look at the chart below. You will see that the worst cards for the dealer are the 5 and 6, followed closely by the 4. When the dealer is showing a 5 or a 6, they have a 42 percent chance of busting and a 40 percent chance when they have a 4 showing. This is why you double down more often when the dealer is showing a 4, 5, or 6.
Blackjack Odds Table
The cards where the dealer is least likely to bust are the Ace, 10, and 9. When the dealer has one of these cards showing, they also have another advantage since the player has to act first. According to basic strategy, a player with a hand of less than 17 will need to take a hit when the dealer is showing a 7, 8, 9, 10, or ace. If the player busts, he loses the hand even if the dealer also busts, so the percentage of times the house will win is greater than just the bust percentage shown in the chart.
Play Correctly
Odds Of Winning Blackjack Hand
You will make more money when the dealer is showing a card that will allow you to double down, however, you must follow the rules of basic strategy. Many novice players will double down with a hand of 7 or 8 against a dealer showing an up card of 5 or 6. This is not correct and even though the dealer will bust 42 percent of the time, you will lose more money if you don’t play according to basic strategy.
Odds Of Dealer Winning Blackjack Numbers
Knowing the dealer’s bust percentage is useful information but it should just be used to confirm the decisions you make when you play basic strategy. If you are unsure of the correct plays, you should memorize the basic strategy chart or bring one to the table with you. This way, you will be playing blackjack with the lowest house edge possible.